Claudio Morana (University of Milano) 23.2.2023

V rámci Research Seminar Series in Economics máme tu čest, že nám ve čtvrtek 23.2.2023 od 12:45 do 14:15 v místnosti RB437 bude přednášet prof. Claudio Morana (University of Milano) o svém výzkumném projektu s názvem “Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation.“ 

BIO: Claudio Morana is a Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) of the University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Director of the Center for European Studies (CefES – University of Milano-Bicocca); President and Director of the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis – Europe (RCEA-Europe ETS). He was a Fulbright Research Scholar at Michigan State University, Visiting Scholar at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies at Harvard University, and a consultant for the European Central Bank. He is a Fellow of the Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies (CeRP, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy), Senior Fellow of the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA HQ University of California Riverside), and member of the Macro-Finance Society, the Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) and the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics Psychology and Social Sciences (CISEPS-University of Milano Bicocca). He is a member of the Editorial Board of Econometrics, Heliyon, the Open Journal of Statistics, Sci, Nordicum-Meditteraneum, and the Asia-Pacific Journal of Mathematics and Research in Globalization. My research interests include macro, financial, and climate change economics and econometrics, with particular reference to the macro-finance interface and the interconnection of economic and financial cycles. He has published over 80 articles in academic journals on the above topics, including the Journal of Econometrics, Econometrics, and Statistics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economic Modeling, Computational Statistics, and Data Analysis, International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Central Banking and Energy Economics.

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces a new decomposition of euro area headline inflation into core, cyclical and residual components. Our new core inflation measure, the structural core inflation rate, bears the interpretation of expected headline inflation, conditional to medium to long-term demand and supply-side developments. It shows smoothness and trending properties, economic content, and forecasting ability for headline inflation and other available core inflation measures routinely used at the ECB for internal or external communication. Hence, it carries additional helpful information for policy-making decisions. Concerning recent developments, all the inflation components contributed to its post-pandemic upsurge. Since mid-2021, core inflation has been on a downward trend, landing at about 3% in 2022. Cyclical and residual inflation -associated with idiosyncratic supply chains, energy markets, and geopolitical tensions- are currently the major threats to price stability. While some cyclical stabilization is ongoing, a stagflation scenario cum weakening overall financial conditions might be lurking ahead. A pressing issue for ECB monetary policy will be to face -mostly supply-side- inflationary pressure without triggering a financial crisis.